Resin Market Moves
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As we close out the first month of 2026, the macro backdrop in the U.S. is still best described as mixed and cautious—and that’s important because it’s keeping demand from snapping back quickly.
Key signals we’ve seen through late January:
What this means for procurement teams: early 2026 is a market where supply events and feedstocks can matter more than demand, and where “narrative pressure” from suppliers will often move faster than fundamentals. The winners will be the teams who stay signal-driven: inventory, operating rates, and feedstock reliability—not headlines.
Also, our ResinSmart team met last week to accelerate new buyer-facing tools and resources—faster workflows, clearer forecasting views, and more decision-ready visuals—so buyers can move from “market information” to action even faster than ever before.
Polyethylene (PE): Force Majeure + Winter Weather = Near-Term Tightening Risk PE is the clearest example this week of how a single event can tighten a market quickly.
Buyer action (next 30 days): if you are exposed to HD pipe or film, this is a moment to tighten internal discipline on what you buy and when. Strategic buys can mitigate any increases that stick as we move deeper into Q1.
Polypropylene (PP): Feedstock-Driven Inflation Is Real (Even If Demand Isn’t) PP is still primarily a feedstock story right now.
Buyer action (30/60/90): hold off on non-critical spot purchases unless needed. Expect 2–3¢/lb upward contract pressure in the near term, with 4–5¢/lb risk into Q1/Q2 depending on PDH reliability and weather.
Polystyrene (PS): Cost Push Is Here, But Demand Still Caps the Ceiling PS remains on track for a slight increase.
Buyer action: acknowledge feedstock pressure, but push back on excessive hikes. PS is still a market where demand keeps leverage with buyers.
PVC: Capacity Tightness Is Real — But Construction Demand Is Still Weak PVC producers continue to push a +5¢/lb January increase, anchored by the Westlake 1B lb/yr plant closure.
But the demand side remains soft with new home sales essentially flat (Oct data), and housing starts are still at multi-year lows.
Preliminary December ACC data shows a large inventory rebound (+161MM lbs) to ~1B lbs, while demand was down 4.2% and exports down 4%.
Buyer action: increases will be difficult to implement broadly. Expect suppliers to keep pushing through Q1; leverage remains tied to end-market exposure and inventory positioning.
Engineered Resins: Stable Base, Higher RMC Risk ABS: no Q1 increase initiatives yet; fundamentals sluggish. Feedstocks (BZ/BD/SM) are rising and could show up in higher RMC. Auto demand uncertainty persists, including USMCA and tariff tension risk.
PC: stable in January with weak demand; no increases proposed for Jan/Feb. Benzene strength will lift RMC.
PA66/PA6: both remain weak; base prices stable-to-soft, but feedstocks (BZ/BD/PGP and CPL)
Buyer action: don’t confuse “stable base price” with “stable total cost.” Watch RMC drivers closely in February and March.
PET: Sluggish Demand + Flat-to-Slightly Higher RMC PET fundamentals remain slow (fiber weak; bottle seasonal slowdown).
No proposed increases, but PX/PTA are expected to firm slightly, lifting RMC while demand caps pass-through.
Buyer action: early Q1 remains buyer-friendly; watch for Q2 demand improvement narrative later.
ResinSmart Wrap-Up As we move deeper into Q1, one thing is becoming clear: 2026 is a year where context, timing, and discipline matter more than headlines.
Supply events, feedstock volatility, and selective tightening are moving faster than demand — and that puts a premium on having the right conversations early.
Over the next few weeks, our team will be out in the market, and I’d welcome the opportunity to connect in person.
If you’ll be at either event and want to talk through:
I’d be glad to connect.
Until then, we’ll keep monitoring the signals that matter — inventories, operating rates, feedstocks, and supply discipline — and sharing what we see as the year unfolds.
Safe travels, and I hope to see many of you over the next few weeks!
Michael Workman |